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Betfair’s data-driven betting guide to the FIFA World Cup
Betfair • June 9th, 2026 3:33 pm
The FIFA World Cup 2026™ is here and Betfair is partnering with Australia’s leading sports analytics platform, Stats Insider for arguably the biggest event on the global sporting calendar.
Stats Insider will be providing exclusive tips on all 104 group matches, with four selections for each game focusing on the winner, total goals, double chance and ‘both teams to score’ markets.
“I think simply, this is going to be the biggest betting event of all time globally,” said Damien Souness, the Chief Experience Officer from Cypher Sports Technology group.
For the first time in history, the World Cup has expanded to 48 teams (up from 32), with 104 group matches in total.
There will be 12 groups, with the top two from each group progressing as well as the eight best “third placed” teams in each group, leading to a knockout Round of 32.
“We are really proud of what we’ve come up with for this World Cup and really excited about our partnership with Betfair,” Souness added.
“We partnered four years ago (World Cup in Qatar) but we are doing something a bit different here. We are offering exclusive tips for all 104 matches, match odds, total goals, double chance, both teams to score.”
Stats Insider is a predictive analytics site that runs comprehensive data models to calculate rated prices that help punters make smarter and more confident decisions.
“In simple terms we build predictive models that estimate probabilities and identify any potential betting opportunities or price discrepancies.
“Within the business we have data scientists who look at all the data we can get our hands on. They run predictive models across many aspects of the games.
“We have expanded to player markets, goals, shots on target etc.”
Favourites have only won the World Cup three times in the past fifty years, with one of those favourites being Spain back in 2010 when they won their first title, and Stats Insider feel they can repeat that effort in 2026.
“We’ve got Spain marked as favourite as well. With a probability of 18.7% and market odds of $5.40. On Betfair they are currently $6, so that represents some value.”
“The top four contenders are Spain, France, Argentina and England with a gap to the likes of Germany and Brazil.
“Argentina at the moment are our best value. We’ve got them at a 13.1% chance of winning. Which is fair odds of $7.62, and you can get $11 on Betfair. So that’s the play at the moment.”
France have played in the last two finals, and share top billing in the market with Spain, Souness feels their price is about right on the Betfair Exchange.
“France we have at 16.6% which is fair odds of $6.02, they are $6.20 on Betfair so that is about spot on.
“We’ve got England at 12.4%, next best is Portugal at 7.6%.”
It’s a different story for the only team to have appeared at every World Cup in history, with the powerhouse Brazil coming in under the odds.
“Brazil are down at 5.4% which we rate at $18.52. Currently they are $11 on Betfair so that’s a Lay.
“We’ve got Croatia and Senegal as our two smokies. They are our next best value players after the favourites.
“Croatia’s world cup pedigree is pretty good. They were finalists in 2018 and third in 2022.”
So how are the Socceroos shaping up? With Paraguay, co host the USA and Türkiye as our group opponents.
“To win the group we have Australia at 13.4%, which is fair odds of $7.49, currently they are $10 on Betfair. So good value. You can bet with the mind and the heart on that.
“To get out of the group, we have fair odds of $1.80, and you can get $2.49 on the Exchange.”
The Socceroos campaign kicks off on Sunday June 14 against Türkiye at 2pm AEST in Vancouver.
The world number 22 looms as a tricky opponent for Australia, but Souness feels there is value to be found.
“We’ve got an edge on Australia to win. We’ve got fair odds of $4.31, and you can get about $5.40 on Betfair at the moment.”
The United States, Canada and Mexico will co host the event, with Canada involved as a host for the first time, after the USA (1994) and Mexico (1986) previously held the event on their own.
Already more than $8 million has been matched on the tournament winner market, before a match has even begun.
You can listen to our full preview of the 2026 World Cup with Stats Insider below:
Make sure you follow stats insider for up to the minute tips and market moves, and for every tip exclusive to the Betfair app.
Key Bets
BACK (WIN) Argentina at $11 (Rated Price $7.62)BACK (WIN) Spain at $6 (Rated Price $5.40)BACK (To top group) Australia at $10 (Rated Price $7.49)BACK (Head To Head) Australia to beat Turkiye at $5.40 (Rated Price of $4.31)LAY (WIN) Brazil at $11 (Rated Price at $18.62)BACK (WIN) SenegalBACK (WIN) Croatia
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