Cricket
Motorsport
Basketball test
League - Test
Combat Sports
Netball
Football
Muhammad vs Bonfim: UFC Vegas 118 bets and analysis (06/06)
Connor Scanlon • June 5th, 2026 7:21 pm
The UFC takes place in Las Vegas this weekend and the Fight Night is being headlined by Belal Muhammad versus Gabriel Bonfim.
The main card consists of five fights and will kick off at 10am AEST on Sunday morning.
See the full analysis of the main card below:
Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Main event)
Odds:Belal Muhammad - $1.85Gabriel Bonfim - $2
Analysis:This is an incredibly difficult fight to break down.
Gabriel Bonfim possesses elite striking and some of the best calf kicks in the division. Stylistically, his striking actually matches up well against Belal Muhammad, as he has the tools to attack Belal’s lead leg and slow down the pressure-heavy style that has made Muhammad so successful.
Bonfim can also hold his own on the ground. While he can be taken down, he has good get-ups and dangerous jiu-jitsu, meaning Belal won’t have an easy time controlling him.
Muhammad’s biggest advantage is his ability to blend striking and wrestling together. He constantly pressures forward, throws in volume and mixes takedowns into his attacks. While Belal doesn’t possess much finishing ability, he is incredibly tough and rarely puts himself in bad positions.
In many ways, Bonfim resembles a less proven version of Ian Machado Garry. He has the skillset to trouble Muhammad, but this is by far the toughest opponent he has ever faced.
Bonfim will have moments throughout the fight, particularly with his kicking game, but Belal’s experience against elite competition should prove decisive. Expect Muhammad to survive the dangerous moments, mix in enough wrestling and pressure, and grind out a hard-fought victory.
Prediction:
Belal Muhammad to win.
Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Co-main)
Odds:Brendan Allen - $1.53Edmen Shahbazyan - $2.52
Analysis:Edmen Shahbazyan enters this fight riding a three-fight win streak, but this is a massive jump in competition.
Shahbazyan is a dangerous striker with genuine finishing ability, but he has consistently struggled against opponents who can mix in grappling. Unfortunately for him, Brendan Allen is one of the better grapplers in the middleweight division.
Allen has spent years fighting the elite of the weight class. In fact, his only two losses in his last 11 fights have come against Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez and Nassourdine Imavov, two of the very best middleweights in the world.
What separates Allen from Shahbazyan is his ability to threaten everywhere. He can strike when needed, but more importantly, he can mix in takedowns and dominate on the ground.
While Shahbazyan may find some success early on the feet, Allen simply has too many ways to win. The American should show the difference in class and take control of this fight as it progresses.
Expect Allen to win comfortably.
Prediction:Brendan Allen to win.
Play:Brendan Allen to win.
Brendan Allen to land 1+ takedowns.
Fares Ziam vs. Tom Nolan
Odds:Fares Ziam - $1.30Tom Nolan - $3.54
Analysis:This is one of the highest-level fights on the entire card.
Tom Nolan is an exceptional striker. The Australian uses his height and reach brilliantly, fighting as a technical kickboxer who is constantly looking to keep opponents at the end of his range. When Nolan is allowed to strike freely, he is extremely difficult to deal with.
However, Fares Ziam is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the division.
Ziam mixes every aspect of MMA together beautifully. He is a technical striker who can switch stances with ease, but more importantly, he possesses outstanding grappling. His takedowns while clinching his opponent on the cage are excellent and once he gets opponents to the ground, his control is quickly becoming among the best in the division.
Ziam mixes every aspect of MMA together beautifully. He is a technical striker who can switch stances with ease, but more importantly, he possesses outstanding grappling. His takedowns while clinching his opponent on the cage are excellent and once he gets opponents to the ground, his control is quickly becoming among the best in the division.
While Nolan likely has the edge in pure striking, this fight is not contested under kickboxing rules. Nolan has shown vulnerabilities when opponents are able to pressure him onto the fence, and that is exactly where Ziam does his best work.
Expect Nolan to have moments on the feet, but over the course of three rounds, Ziam’s grappling should become the difference. The Frenchman should win this fight through his ability to mix everything together.
Prediction:Fares Ziam to win.
Play:Fares Ziam to land 1+ takedowns
Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna
Odds:Bryce Mitchell - $1.72Santiago Luna - $2.13
Analysis:This is one of the toughest fights to predict on the card.
Santiago Luna enters this matchup undefeated and brings a strong wrestling base. While his striking remains fairly raw, he does possess genuine knockout power and can make opponents pay if they make mistakes on the feet.
Bryce Mitchell isn’t exactly known for his striking either. Like Luna, his best work comes through his wrestling and grappling, which makes this matchup particularly interesting as both fighters will likely be trying to impose a similar game plan, either keeping the fight standing to neutralise their opponents grappling, or wrestling one another head on.
The difference here is experience. Mitchell has spent years competing against UFC-level competition and understands what it takes to win at the highest level. Luna may have the undefeated record, but this represents a significant step up in opposition.
Mitchell also appears rejuvenated since moving down to bantamweight, winning his debut in the division and looking to reignite his career after a difficult period.
This fight could be scrappy and competitive throughout, but Mitchell’s UFC experience should prove to be the deciding factor. Expect him to hand Luna his first professional loss.
Prediction:Bryce Mitchell to win.
Iwo Baraniewski vs. Junior Tafa
Odds:Iwo Baraniewski - $1.24Junior Tafa - $4.10
Analysis:This fight has fireworks written all over it.
Junior Tafa is a pure striker who wants absolutely nothing to do with grappling. The problem for Tafa is that he struggles to defend calf kicks and once the fight hits the ground, he is usually in serious trouble. Fortunately for him, he shouldn’t have to worry about any of that here.
Baraniewski is primarily a boxer and possesses massive knockout power. He is dangerous from the opening bell and has the ability to put opponents away with a single punch.
What makes this matchup fascinating is that both men are being forced into a striking battle. Tafa is at his best when he doesn’t have to think about takedowns, and against Baraniewski, that should be the case. At the same time, Baraniewski’s power makes him a legitimate threat to knock Tafa unconscious at any moment.
This fight simply isn’t going the distance. Every UFC victory between these two men has come via knockout, and it’s hard to see this one being any different.
While Baraniewski’s power is concerning, Tafa is getting his ideal stylistic matchup. At the odds, the Australian presents decent value and has every chance of finding the knockout himself.
Prediction:Junior Tafa to win.
Play:Junior Tafa to win.Fight to end in KO/TKO.
$100 Main Card Staking Plan
$50 SAME GAME MULTI @ $1.80 (returns $90)Brendan Allen to win AND Brendan Allen to land 1+ takedowns
$20 MULTI @ $2.46 (returns $49)Brendan Allen to win AND Brendan Allen to land 1+ takedownsBaraniewski vs Tafa to end in KO/TKO
$20 MULTI @ $3.87 (returns $77)Brendan Allen to win AND Brendan Allen to land 1+ takedownsBaraniewski vs Tafa to end in KO/TKOFarez Ziam to land 1+ takedowns
$10 WIN @ $4.10 (returns $41)Junior Tafa to win
$100 Full Card Staking Plan
$60 MULTI @ $1.82 (returns $109)Marcus McGhee to winBrendan Allen to win
$20 WIN @ $2.58 (returns $51)Jordan Leavitt to win
$10 WIN @ $4.10 (returns $41)Junior Tafa to win
$10 WIN @ $6.05 (returns $60.50)Matt Schnell to win
Imagine what you could be buying instead. For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
