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Song vs Figueiredo: UFC Macau bets and analysis (30/05)
Connor Scanlon • May 28th, 2026 6:41 pm
The UFC takes place in Macau this weekend and is being headlined by Song Yadong versus Deiveson Figueiredo.
The main card consists of six fights and will kick off at 9pm AEST on Saturday night.
See the full analysis of the main card below:
Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Main event)
Odds:Song Ya Dong - $1.13Deiveson Figueiredo - $6
Analysis:The main event in Macau sets up to be a banger, but the odds makers should have this one closer!
Figueiredo is a two-time UFC champion at flyweight and since moving up to the bantamweight division, his only three losses have come to Petr Yan (current bantamweight champion), Cory Sandhagen (No.4 ranked bantamweight) and Umar Nurmagomedov (No.2 ranked bantamweight) - three of the best fighters in the division.
In fact, Song Yadong has also lost to both Yan and Sandhagen, and would also lose Nurmagomedov. Due to this, Figueiredo being at such wide odds is a bit crazy, and while the Brazilian isn’t the same fighter he once was, thanks to being 38 years old, he still has the skills to be able to compete with Song Ya Dong.
However, this main event bout does stylistically suit Yadong - he’s the younger fighter by 10 years and is mainly a kickboxer who fights out of a boxing stance who mixes in takedowns. The Chinaman is super explosive, and against Figueiredo, that explosiveness will work wonders for him.
Furthermore, a weakness of Yadong is high-volume strikers who can control the distance, and Figueiredo just isn’t that. Figueiredo is low volume, but does fight heavy on his back foot, therefore making him hard to hit.
While Yadong should take home the victory, this is a punter beware fight. The odds make this matchup extremely hard to bet on, as Figueiredo could definitely pull off an upset here. The most likely outcome of this fight is Yadong to win by KO/TKO or decision, but his short odds are something that you need to considered before placing any bets.
Prediction:
Song Yadong to win.
Play:
Song Yadong by decision but betting not recommended.
Zhang Mingyang vs. Alonzo Menifield (Co-main)
Odds:Zhang Mingyang - $1.39Alonzo Menifield - $3.04
Analysis:Zhang Mingyang is a Round 1 knockout specialist, winning 14 out of his 16 professional fights by knockout in Round 1.
And this matchup suits Mingyang perfectly to knock Menifield out in Round 1. The American has lost by KO/TKO in three of his last five fights and was knocked out in Round 1 in two of those.
While Mingyang does struggle to cut his opponent off from circling away from him, that shouldn’t be a problem here against Menifield. The American kickboxer is happy to fight with his back against the fence with little movement, and against Mingyang that should set the knockout up perfectly for the Chinaman.
Menifield’s avenue to victory here is to throw plenty of calf kicks as Mingyang barely defends them. The American would also need to survive until Round 2, as Mingyang heavily tires whenever the fight exits Round 1.
But with that being said, Zhang Mingyang should win this fight, and at the odds, he appears a great multi option.
Prediction:Zhang Mingyang to win by KO/TKO.
Play:Zhang Mingyang to win.Zhang Mingyang to win by KO/TKO.Zhang Mingyang to win by KO/TKO in Round 1.
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira
Odds:Sergei Pavlovich - $1.15Tallison Teixeira - $5.50
Analysis:This is the easiest fight to predict on the entire card. Sergei Pavlovich will simply dominate Tallison Teixeira.
Teixeira was lucky to escape with a decision victory against Tai Tuivasa in his last fight, and now against the No.3 ranked heavyweight, the Brazilian will be out of his depth.
Not much more needs to be said. Pavlovich will win this bout by knockout or decision.
Prediction:Sergei Pavlovich to win by KO/TKO or decision.
Play:Sergei Pavlovich to win by KO/TKO.Sergei Pavlovich to win by KO/TKO in Round 3.Sergei Pavlovich to win by decision.
Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman
Odds:Kai Asakura - $1.32Cameron Smotherman - $3.41
Analysis:A very interesting matchup looms here between Asakura and Smotherman, as both of these strikers need to be fighting fellow strikers to win.
Smotherman is a young, up and coming boxer, while Asakura is an elite kickboxer, highlighted by his incredible speed. This will also be Asakura’s maiden fight in the bantamweight division inside the UFC.
This bout is D-Day for Asakura, as he was brought into the organisation with high hopes, even making his debut in a flyweight title fight against Alexandre Pantoja, but lost by submission. Since then Askaura also lost by submission against Tim Elliot, showing that his ground game just simply isn’t UFC standard. If Asakura doesn’t win here, there is a possibility that he is cut from the organisation.
However, against Smotherman, the Japanese fighter won’t need to worry about takedowns, which will give Asakura the best possible chance at winning. While Smotherman does have super slick boxing, Asakura will win this bout, simply because his striking is proven at the highest level in Japan.
Prediction:Kai Asakura to win by KO/TKO or decision.
Play:Kai Asakura to win by KO/TKO or decision.
Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris
Odds:Jake Matthews - $1.29Carlston Harris - $3.62
Analysis:This bout is a technical boxer in Jake Matthews versus an incredibly wild boxer in Carlston Harris.
Interestingly, Matthews does have amazing jiu-jitsu skills, and his best avenue to victory is on the ground against Harris, as the Jamaican struggles to deal with being in bottom jiu-jitsu positions.
However, the problem lies in Matthews’ reluctance to land takedowns – he always prefers to keep the fight standing and will only enter the ground game if he is forced there or if his opponent shoots a sloppy takedown and he reverses the position.
Luckily for the Australian though, Harris shot poor takedowns multiple times in his last fight, and if he replicates that again here, it will play perfectly into Matthews’ hands.
In saying that, if this fight does stay on the feet, Harris presents decent value at his odds. If the Jamaican has removed his poor takedown attempts from his game, the fight will remain on the feet and will become a battle between a technical versus wild boxer. Whilst Matthews does have the better boxing, it will be a fairly even scrap, and Harris could get the job done on the feet.
Prediction:Carlston Harris to win.
Play:Carlston Harris to win.
Alex Perez vs. Su Madaerji
Odds:Alex Perez - $1.69Su Madaerji - $2.18
Analysis:
This is an incredible matchup and is one of the better fights on the card.
Alex Perez is a wrestler who is also a high-volume striker. He regularly blitzes in on his opponents to either rock them or set up his takedowns, while Su Madaerji is a tall, rangy kickboxer who likes to control the range. He possesses superb leg kicks, along with accurate, laser-like punches, and has decent takedown defence, but can still be taken down.
The way this fight will play out is fairly simple. Su Madaerji will be trying to control the range, and snipe Perez with leg kicks and punches, while Perez will be pressuring forward with high output and takedown attempts. If Su Madaerji can defend Perez’s takedowns, then he will win this matchup, but if Perez has success with his takedowns, it will be a long night for Su Madaerji.
Prediction:Alex Perez by decision.
Play:Don’t bet.
$100 Staking Plan
$50 - Kai Asakura, Sergei Pavlovich, Zhang Mingyang @ $2.20 (returns $110)$20 - Zhang Mingyang by KO/TKO, Pavlovich by KO/TKO or Decision @ $2 (returns $40)$10 - Sergei Pavlovich by decision @ $6 (returns $60)$10 - Carlston Harris to win @ $3.70 (returns $37)$5 - Sergei Pavlovich to win by KO in Round 3 @ $9.50 (returns $47.50)$5 - Kai Asakura, Sergei Pavlovich by KO/TKO or decision, Mingyang by KO in Round 1, Song Yadong by decision @ $10.37 (returns $51.87)
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