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UFC 317: Best bets for Topuria vs Oliveira
Connor Scanlon • June 28th, 2025 10:00 pm
As UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira approaches this Sunday morning (8:30am AEST), punters have every reason to get excited.
This card is stacked, the matchups are fiery, and more importantly - there’s serious value to be found in the betting markets.
From calculated underdogs to high-reward props, here are the sharpest bets for UFC 317.
BEST BET:
Brandon Royval to Beat Joshua Van ($2.07)
If you're looking for the best bet of the entire card, Brandon Royval as an underdog is the standout play of the weekend.
This fight is shaping up to be a familiar storyline: a surging young talent meets an experienced fighter far too early in their rise. We've seen it happen multiple times this year already - Payton Talbott falling to Raoni Barcelos, Carlos Prates getting outclassed by Ian Garry, and Oumar Sy losing to Alonzo Menifield. This matchup feels like the exact same setup.
Make no mistake, Joshua Van is a phenomenal prospect and likely a future title contender. But at just 23 years old, coming off a near full-length fight only 3 weeks ago at UFC 316, it's hard to believe he’s fully recovered or prepared for someone like Royval.
Royval is currently the No. 1 contender in the division and the only thing keeping him from a title shot is his recent losses to champion Alexandre Pantoja. At 32, Royval is in the prime of his career and offers a well-rounded, polished attack that should give Van trouble everywhere the fight goes.
Van will bring the speed and boxing, but Royval will look to employ a complete MMA skillset, and take Van to places where he has never been before. Don’t expect a finish, but expect Royval to control the tempo, land the bigger moments, and remind everyone why he’s still at the top.
At over $2 odds, this is the kind of underdog you take with full confidence.
VALUE BET:
Ilia Topuria by Submission ($7.00)
The likely outcome? Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO and walks away with the vacant lightweight title. But the smart money? It might just be on him locking up a submission.
While Charles Oliveira is as dangerous as they come on the ground, his willingness to pull guard or shoot when hurt has led to his undoing before - just look at how Islam Makhachev submitted him.
Topuria isn’t just a flashy boxer; he’s one of the most complete fighters in the UFC. People overlook his grappling because his hands are so sharp, but his first 7 pro fights were all victories by submission - and he still carries that killer instinct on the mat.
If (or when) he drops Oliveira, and history suggests he will, Topuria may opt to follow him to the ground and finish the job there. Whether it's due to Oliveira pulling guard or shooting in desperation, Topuria will have opportunities to use his grappling to end the fight.
And with the Spaniard saying all week he plans to finish in Oliveira in Round 1 by knockout or submission, the submission play at $7 offers huge value in what could be a brief, but dynamic main event.
MULTI OF THE WEEK
Let’s not overthink this. Combine our best bet with the likeliest outcome in the main event, and you’ve got a multi that feels rock solid.
Brandon Royval to defeat Joshua Van ($2.07)Ilia Topuria to defeat Charles Oliveira ($1.20)
Total odds: $2.48
It’s not the flashiest multi on paper, but the logic is bulletproof.
Royval is the sharp underdog play, and Topuria is primed to become champion. This is the kind of double you can place with confidence and watch stress-free.
Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit. For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
What are you really gambling with? Set a deposit limit. For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
