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UFC 319: Du Plessis v Chimaev - who wins and why?
Connor Scanlon • August 15th, 2025 6:00 pm
As UFC 319: Du Plessis vs Chimaev approaches this Sunday morning (8:10am AEST), fans have every reason to get excited.
The card is stacked from top to bottom, headlined by the South African UFC Middleweight Champion Dricus Du Plessis who plans to defend his title against the undefeated Khamzat Chimaev.
This is shaping up to be the best fight card of the year and you do not want to miss it.
See the full main card tips and predictions for each fight below:
Dricus Du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev
This championship fight promises to be the 2025 Fight of the Year, the reason why? Because it is a complete 50/50.
Dricus “Stillknocks” Du Plessis hasn’t lost a fight in the last seven years and is going for his third title-defence, yet he still continues to amaze people each time he steps into the Octagon. The champion has opened as an underdog in three of his previous four fights, as the odds makers can’t seem to grasp why Du Plessis keeps winning. They believe that his technique is sloppy, he has poor fight IQ and is unpolished. But all that is simply untrue!
Du Plessis’ unorthodox striking is what makes him special – it’s because no-one else in the world strikes the way he does and it’s impossible to prepare for him. The South African also has some of the best fight IQ in the game, making elite in-fight adjustments to undo his opponents. But the real reason why he is so successful lies in his heart, Du Plessis is one of the toughest fighters in modern UFC history. He will never quit on himself, no matter how much damage he has taken or how tired he is. The champion mixes all aspects of martial arts up perfectly and will need to be at his very best to defeat Khamzat Chimaev.
Chimaev is arguably the best wrestler in the UFC right now, and the numbers behind his success don’t lie. In all eight of his UFC fights he has taken his opponent down within the first minute of each fight. In fact, in six of those fights combined he has only been hit a total of three times – that is a stat which will never be broken again in UFC history.
While the Chechen’s wrestling is his best asset, his boxing is also impressive. This is because his opponents are so worried about the threat of being taken down, that it leaves room for Chimaev to dominate his opponents on the feet as well.
However, Chimaev has a large problem with his output. He goes all-in with full effort and intensity at the start of every fight, leaving himself exposed and tired as the fight goes on. If Chimaev is to become the new middleweight champion here then he will have to conserve himself.
This contest lies purely on one question – can Dricus Du Plessis survive the first 10 minutes against Khamzat Chimaev? If Du Plessis can survive that early two-round onslaught then he should get on top in the later rounds, allowing him to finish the tired Chimaev or win a decision. Du Plessis certainly has the skills to survive the early rush and his five-round experience will hold him in good stead here. So, don't be surprised to hear Bruce Buffer yell, "AND STILL," come the end of the card.
Prediction: Dricus Du PlessisMethod of Victory: N/A
Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico
Aaron Pico makes his highly-anticipated UFC debut this weekend, making the switch over from the PFL promotion. The 28-year-old prospect has a record of 13-4, and Pico’s only loss in his last 10 fights came from injury. Pico looks for the kill every time he steps into the Octagon, with only two of his victories coming by decision. The debutant plans to leave a statement here because if he defeats Lerone Murphy then he could be next in line for a featherweight title shot against Aussie champion Alexander Volkanovski.
However, the man who Aaron Pico will share the Octagon with is the undefeated Englishman – Lerone Murphy. The No. 6 ranked Murphy is a champion-level fighter, but the only thing which has held him back from facing a top-5 contender is his strategic fighting style, which the UFC and some fans believe isn’t exciting to watch. Murphy has won six of his last seven fights via decision, thanks to continuously outpointing the opposing fighter with composed strikes and strategic ground control time.
While Murphy’s style may get a few boos from the crowd, the Englishman is going to show Aaron Pico that there are levels to this sport. Murphy should strategically outpoint Pico throughout their bout, giving the debutant a rude-awakening once he enters that UFC Octagon for the first time.
Prediction: Lerone MurphyMethod of Victory: Points
Geoff Neal vs Carlos Prates
Since entering the UFC in 2024 Carlos Prates has taken the world by storm, thanks to winning four straight fights by KO/TKO all within the year. He most recently fought in a main-event Fight Night against the No. 6 ranked Ian Garry, where he lost majority of that fight, but nearly knocked Garry out in the last minute of their 5-round battle, sending the UFC world into frenzy. The reason why Prates was outclassed in that fight was due to Garry’s wrestling approach mitigating Prates’ dangerous striking. But this fight won’t be like that, this fight will stay on the feet.
Geoff “Handz Of Steel” Neal has a nickname which lives up to his fighting style. Similarly to Prates, Neal is one of the heaviest hitters in the welterweight division, winning half of his eight UFC victories by KO/TKO. Neal has promised that this bout will stay standing and even admitted that he has been training for a 1-round fight, as he doesn’t believe this fight will make it to Round 2.
While both fighters have knockout power, Carlos Prates is a slight class above Geoff Neal’s striking. Neal is still an elite boxer, but Prates is arguably the most composed and calculated striker in the welterweight division. This fight promises violence and Prates should continue his surge to the top of the welterweight division.
Prediction: Carlos PratesMethod of Victory: KO/TKO or on Points
Jared Cannonier vs Michael Page
This battle of veterans will be one of the most aura-defying fights of the entire card.
Jared “The Killa Gorilla” Cannonier is now 41-years-old and started his UFC career 10 years ago. Despite his age Cannonier most recently defeated middleweight prospect Gregory Rodrigues, and defeated both Sean Strickland and Marvin Vettori since December of 2022. In fact, his last three losses have only come from the divisions elite in Israel Adesanya, Nassourdine Imavov and Caio Borralho, proving that he still has what it takes to hang around the middleweight rankings.
Michael “Venom” Page (MVP) is one of the hardest strikers to deal with in the entire UFC, due to his unorthodox freestyle kickboxing approach, where he mixes in a side-on stance, hands-down approach and counter-striking focus. MVP has spent most his career in the Bellator promotion where he collected highlight knockout after highlight knockout, before moving to the UFC last year. Despite being 38-years-old MVP has already fought three-times in the UFC, and this will be his fourth.
In MVP’s three UFC fights, his only loss has come against Ian Garry, as Garry wrestled MVP the entire fight. If Cannonier wants any chance of winning this fight, then he will have to adopt that exact same wrestling-heavy approach as Garry did. However, Cannonier most likely won’t implement that strategy and will look to strike with MVP, which should allow the Englishman to sail towards a smooth victory.
Prediction: Michael PageMethod of Victory: Points
Tim Elliot vs Kai Asakura
Kai Asakura returns to the Octagon for the first time since his UFC debut loss at UFC 310, where he was thrown straight into a flyweight title fight against Brazilian beast Alexandre Pantoja. While the 31-year-old was submitted in Round 2 against Pantoja, he showed more than enough talent to prove that he is one of the deadliest flyweights on Earth. Asakura has 13 KO/TKO victories across his fighting career in Japan, thanks to his electrifying Muay Thai fighting style that only few in the world can match.
Tim Elliot on the other hand is a UFC veteran who has been fighting with the promotion since 2012. Elliot is now 38-years-old, but he has still won three of his last four fights, with his only loss coming to the undefeated Muhammad Mokaev. Elliot mixes all aspects of martial arts up perfectly, however his age has obviously made him slower whilst striking on the feet.
Elliot’s avenue to victory is to expose Asakura’s fairly untested grappling throughout his fighting career, however that is easier said than done. After previously being submitted in his last bout, Asakura would have been tirelessly working on improving his wrestling, so don’t be surprised if you see an evolved version of Kai Asakura. While Elliot has all the veteran experience he needs to win this fight, ultimately Asakura’s elite speed and fast reflexes will determine the outcome of this bout. Expect to see Asakura constantly hurting Elliot on the feet, potentially landing a monstrous knockout strike.
Prediction: Kai AsakuraMethod of Victory: KO/TKO or on Points
